工具与资源lcamtuf.coredump.cx
给没那么疯狂的人准备的末日计划
Doomsday planning for less crazy folk
2016 — 2020，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
这是 lcamtuf 写的一份面向普通人的应急准备指南，试图把“末日准备”从偏执囤积拉回到断电、灾害、撤离等更现实的场景。文中涉及具体物资清单、预算取舍，以及和邻居建立关系等建议。
为什么经久不衰：它用务实、低成本的方式处理真实风险，而不是贩卖恐惧；这种常识性准备在任何年代都用得上。
HN 评论精选
真正关键的是适应力和社群，而非孤立的物资囤积与武器。
这里最被忽略的是心态。我在军队14年，经历过几次武装冲突和人道灾难，见过几乎所有计划和准备都会失效，所以要学会行动、适应和随机应变。想在突发场景中活下来，需要韧性、极强的创造力和心理强度——更像 MacGyver，而不是《奇爱博士》。保持极简，学会觅食和搜寻物资，学会融入人群、与人相处，不要把任何东西视为理所当然。我见过的幸存者最成功的特质，是知道何时留在原地、何时转移——无论是躲避暴徒还是熊，还是去另一个县/州。必要时冒险，但不要无谓冒险。关键仍是通过有意识训练形成正确心态；最好的生存学校会教这个。我建议从冒险旅行开始：不带计划、只带最少物资去某个地方。补充：多数预备者和这篇文章的关键问题在于“独自无惧”的思路——囤几个月物资、备各种武器；现实中这很容易让储备被一群搜寻者抢走。你真正需要的是找到或建立一个小型、有生存意识、能长期合作的社群。
AndrewKemendo查看英文原文
The major thing overlooked here is mindset. After 14 years in the military and experience with several armed conflicts and humanitarian disasters, I have seen that pretty much all your plans and preparation will go out the window, so you need to learn to move adapt and improvise. If you're going to survive any contingency scenario you need to be resilient, excruciatingly innovative and mentally tough. Think more like MacGyver and less like Dr Strangelove. Be minimal, learn how to forage and scavenge, learn how to blend in and get along and take nothing for granted. The most successful trait I've seen in survivors it's to know when to stay put and when to move. Whether it's hiding from a mob or a bear, or finding a different county or state to go to. Take risk when necessary but not unnecessarily. Again, having the right mindset, through intentional training is the key. There are all kinds of survival schools and the best ones will teach you this. I suggest adventure traveling as a start. That means you go someplace with no plans and the most minimal of supplies. Edit to add: The key problem with most prepper folks and this article is that they take an approach of "alone and unafraid." Things like stocking up for months and having all kinds of weapons. In practice this is just a great way to get your cache raided by a group of scavengers. In reality you need to find or create a small community of survival minded people that can work together successfully over a long period with a variety of skills. As humans we need groups for survival, so the best bet in a crisis is to build a resilient flexible community until things settle down.
按一周断水断电或撤离的场景备好实用物资，并保持能快速装车出发。
我经历过多次重大自然灾害：福岛、Ike 飓风、2013 年科罗拉多洪水，也经历过两次枪击事件（幸运的是只有枪手受伤）。我的意思是，到目前为止我很幸运，因为这些都没给我造成大问题，只是可控的不便。但我不可能一直这么幸运。所以现在家里备有：5 加仑饮用水；一周罐头食品；急救包；火柴、打火机、Sterno 罐；太阳能 USB 充电器；多支手电和备用电池，外加电池灯笼；手摇收音机；扎实的酒收藏；无电煮咖啡设备（Sterno、手摇磨豆机、法压壶）；一个大桶用于卫生。还有露营装备，包括 Coleman 炉和几小罐丙烷。经历几次洪水后，我也绝不住一楼公寓。我把这些东西装在塑料箱里，需要撤离时约 20 分钟就能装车出发。目标是在公寓断水断电被困一周，或靠车生活一周。我骑车上班，车包里带 Leatherman 多功能工具、小刀、乳胶手套、3M N99 口罩、手电、雨披……
saryant查看英文原文
I've been in a number of major natural disasters at this point. Fukushima, Ike, Colorado's 2013 floods. I've also been in two shooting incidents (where fortunately only the shooter was hurt). My point is, I've been lucky so far because none of these posed a major problem for me. I made it out with manageable inconvenience. However, I can only get lucky like that so many times. So now I keep the following at home: * 5 gallons drinking water * Canned food for a week * First aid kit * Matches, lighter, Sterno cans * Solar USB charger * Many flashlights with spare batteries, plus a battery-powered lantern * Hand-crank radio * Solid liquor collection ;) * Equipment to make a fresh cup of coffee with no electricity (Sterno, hand-crank coffee grinder, French press) * A big bucket for, well, sanitation I've also got my camping supplies, which includes a Coleman stove and a few small propane canisters. Having been in a few floods I will also never live in a ground-floor apartment. I also keep all this stuff boxed up in plastic crates, so if I needed to evacuate I could load up my car with all this gear in about 20 minutes and be on my way. My goal is to be able to survive a week trapped in my apartment with no utilities, or living out of my car for the same amount of time. I bike to work and in my pannier I keep a Leatherman multitool, pocket knife, latex gloves (mostly for fixing my bike chain, but also useful in other emergencies), 3M N99 mask, flashlight, poncho, a garbage bag and a small thing of duct tape. In most of the kinds of disasters that hit Colorado, I would be able to get home, either walking or by bike. I only live about three miles from work.
针对最可能的地震，车里放廉价的水、地图和衣物等小准备即可，且同样适用于车祸。
在湾区，上午10点发生地震是日常最可能经历的“高概率×高严重度”事件——有人可能要走25英里回到也许已倒塌的住处，通讯最多时断时续，道路可能无法通行。依我看，在湾区如果车里没有一箱水、一张道路地图和一套步行替换衣物，简直是在求老天惩罚。好在总共约10美元，而且没有地震时也能喝那箱水。此外，地震时顺手的手套、撬棍、基本创伤用品等，在车祸中也用得上，而车祸实际更可能发生。
thomas_howland查看英文原文
A 10 AM Bay Area earthquake is the highest plausibility * severity event you're likely to experience around here on a day to day basis - leaving some people with a 25 mile commute back to a structure that might or might not be standing, intermittent at best communications, and potentially impassible roads. IMO if you don't have a case of water, a road map, and a change of walking-around clothes in your car around here, you're asking for smiting. Fortunately that's about $10 in total, and you can drink the water even if there's not an earthquake. Additionally, near everything that would be handy in case of an earthquake (gloves, pry bar, basic trauma supplies, etc) is useful in case of a car crash, which actually is far more likely.
批评预备文化把危机想象成孤立竞争，忽视社会互助与阶级问题。
“预备者”现象是我们时代和社会极端个人主义（说得难听点是自我中心）的体现。它不假设危机中社会会团结互助，而要求我们成为一支单人军队，为所有场景囤货，并武装起来对抗那些无疑会来抢东西的危险他人。这很可悲。我真诚认为，这也是美国巨大阶级鸿沟导致对他人负面看法的例子，类似奴隶主生活舒适却持续偏执。也许我们应该改善社会底层条件，这样在灾难来临时才能期待互相帮助。
aedron查看英文原文
The 'prepping' phenomenon is an expression of the extreme individualism (or less graciously, ego-centrism) of our time and society. Rather than assuming that society will come together in a crisis and help each other out, we need to become an army-of-one, stocked up for every scenario and armed to the teeth against dangerous others who are undoubtedly coming to take our shit. It's sad. I honestly think this another example of the huge class divide in America causing such a negative outlook on other people, similar to how slave owners lived in comfort, but also constant paranoia. Perhaps we should work on improving conditions for the bottom of society, so we can have an expectation of helping each other when the shit goes down.
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