历史与人物qz.com
1427 年佛罗伦萨最富有的家族，如今依然最富有
The richest families in Florence in 1427 are still the richest (2016)
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导读
这篇文章报道了一项基于1427年佛罗伦萨税收记录的研究：当时最富有的家族（如Medici等）的后代，在600年后的今天仍处于收入分布的较高位置。研究通过姓氏追踪跨代际的收入流动性，发现文艺复兴时期的社会流动性极低，直到20世纪才有所改善。
为什么经久不衰：它以600年的数据展示了社会阶层固化与代际流动性的惊人持久性，对理解财富传承和不平等问题至今仍有启发。
HN 评论精选
这些家族的秘诀是艺术、黄金和土地等可携带、可保值的资产，重在保值而非追逐收益。
我读过一堆金融书，其中一位作者（好像是William Bernstein）说他采访过这些家族的一员，问他们如何守住财富600多年。答案是“艺术、黄金和土地”。当年如果外敌来袭，你可以卷起艺术品、装好金子骑马逃走，土地产权仍是你的，敌军被赶走后带着东西回家即可。这些人追求的不是回报率，而是在最坏情况下长期保住财富。
DennisP查看英文原文
A while back I was reading a stack of financial books, and in one of them the author (I think it was William Bernstein) wrote that he'd had the opportunity to interview a member of one of these families, and asked how they'd managed to hold onto their wealth for 600+ years. The answer was "art, gold, and land." If you had a rich estate back then and a foreign army was on the way, you could roll up your art, put your gold in sacks, and ride away. The title to the land would still be yours, and after the foreign army is expelled you just return home with your stuff. I can think of some risks with this plan, and some improvements that could be made today, but basically these people aren't chasing returns, they think about preserving wealth for the long haul through worst-case scenarios.
佛罗伦萨富人在瘟疫时向城市捐财用于重建，这可能是它比锡耶纳更繁荣的原因之一。
我在佛罗伦萨了解到，瘟疫来临时锡耶纳和佛罗伦萨的富家族做法不同。佛罗伦萨一些家族意识到自己可能撑不下去，便把大量财富捐给城市和民众，用于重建；锡耶纳没有这样做。据导游说，这就是佛罗伦萨繁荣而锡耶纳衰落的原因。
wil421查看英文原文
One thing I learned in Florence is when the plague came the rich families from Siena and Florence took two different approaches. In Florence, some of the families noticed they might not last so they decided to, not sure if distribute wealth is the right word, but they gave a lot to the city and remaining people. They knew it would be needed for rebuilding. Siena did not and according to my guide it’s the reason Florence flourished and Siena became a lesser known city.
媒体曲解了原论文：研究追踪的是姓氏与职业收入的代际相关性，而非家族财富的持续传承。
不出所料，qz.com 的文章曲解了原论文的含义。原论文标题是《你姓什么？六个世纪的代际流动性》——它追踪的是通过税收记录反映的收入，而非财富传承。论文指出如今从事律师、银行等职业的人更可能与15世纪同职业者共享姓氏，并不是在追踪跨代财富转移。qz 甚至删掉了论文最有趣的结论：文艺复兴佛罗伦萨的代际流动性僵化程度超过0.8，直到工业革命前社会基本停滞，20世纪才开始松动。文章讲的不是美第奇家族的秘密信托，而是更平凡的事实：父辈祖辈是律师，你也更可能是律师。
gmunu查看英文原文
Not surprisingly, the qz.com article distorts the meaning of the original paper and looking at the comments, they seem to follow the false, but suggested interpretation of the paper that qz gives. It's useful to note the title of the paper: What’s your (sur)name? Intergenerational mobility over six centuries. This paper is not tracking wealth, it's tracking income via tax records. It notes things like people who are lawyers or bankers now were more likely to share surnames with people in similar professions in the 15th century. It is not tracking inter-generation transfers of wealth. In fact, qz even drops the most interesting conclusion in the article, which is their measurement of changing intergenerational income mobility overtime. They measure inelasticity at > .8 in Renaissance Florence and a generally static society until the industrial revolution, with inelasticity coming down starting in the 20th century. The article isn't about secret trusts set up by the Medici, but the more prosaic fact that if you father and grandfather were lawyers, you're more likely to be one too. Still interesting, but it's not evidence that families were "able to maintain their wealth" through revolutions at all.
亲历者称这些老钱家族如今只是靠祖产过朴素日子，且意大利税收数据可靠性存疑。
这纯属个人见闻：我住在佛罗伦萨，认识几个“老钱”家族的人，按今天的标准他们并不富有。他们靠出租和管理祖传房产过着朴素的生活，必须节俭才能维持。另外，对任何用意大利税收记录做数据来源的研究都要持怀疑态度。
rwinn查看英文原文
This is purely anecdotal, but I live in Florence and know a couple of people from the "old-money" families and they are not rich by todays standard. They make a modest living renting out and managing the properties handed down through the generations and have to be frugal to make it work. Also, you should be very sceptical of any study made using Italian tax records as a data source :D
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