历史与人物sciencemag.org
公元 536 年：“活着最糟糕的一年”
536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)
2018 — 2020，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
这篇文章解释为什么公元536年常被称为“活着最糟的一年”：一次大规模火山喷发把烟尘送入大气，遮蔽阳光、造成全球变冷和作物歉收，随后饥荒与瘟疫接连而来。文章结合冰芯、树轮等证据，重建了这场持续多年的气候与人类灾难。
为什么经久不衰：它用科学证据把一场遥远的气候灾变还原为具体的饥荒、寒冷与死亡，也提醒人们火山和气候突变的风险并未消失。
HN 评论精选
火山等全球性灾变风险不可避免且我们准备不足，多行星化可能是唯一出路。
2010年冰岛埃亚菲亚德拉火山喷发只是火山扰动日常生活的一个小样本，而且规模相对还小。更大的喷发很可能在几乎所有层面重创现代社会，这不是“如果”而是“何时”。类似地，全球变暖、新仙女木期这类未知事件都能大幅改变地球热平衡。我们其实处于一种最终必然发生的“彻底重置”风险中，却几乎没有准备；走向多行星或太空栖息地也许是唯一出路，尽管障碍巨大。
lgl查看英文原文
The 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull [0] was a small sample of the perturbations that a volcanic event can have on day to day lives. And it was a relatively small eruption. Anything much larger than that will most likely have devastating effects on modern society on pretty much all levels and it's not really a matter of "if" but "when". Besides eruptions, many other scarier events can cause huge shifts on the planet's thermal equilibrium including our current state of global warming or many other unknown events (like whatever happened to cause the Younger Dryas [1] "only" ~13k years ago which is theorized to have been either a mega eruption, impact event or stellar supernova). It's pretty scary and definitely not something that we're at all prepared even with all our technology so we're basically in a permanent state of risk of complete reset which is guaranteed to happen eventually. Sadly it's not something most of us spend too much time thinking or preparing for. I guess this is largely because we live very short lives and that make these kind of events appear much "larger than life" so they go mostly ignored except for some underfunded science departments or the occasional billionaire. To me this is the main reason that going multiplanetary or space habitat based is basically the only way to escape this inevitable doom even though that is also a huge barrier to overcome on so many levels. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_eruptions_of_Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
按累积苦难，543年可能比536年更糟。
我知道这有点抬杠，但按文章里事件发生的顺序，543年不才是活着最糟的一年吗？到那时你已经经历了两次火山事件带来的饥荒和严寒，看着三分之一到一半的亲友死于瘟疫。536年火山雾开始袭来时是可怕而困惑，但你不可能预知后来的恐怖。
MannishMan查看英文原文
I know this is pedantic, but based on the order of events in the article wouldn’t 543 be the worst year to be alive? By then you would have experienced the cumulative horror of starving and freezing through two volcanic events and watching a third to half of your friends and family die of plague. 536 would have a been frightening and confusing as the volcanic fog began to roll in, but you couldn’t know the terror of what was to come.
质疑现代社会对全球火山灾变的准备和火山预报可靠性。
我们面对又一次灾难性火山喷发有多脆弱？新冠疫情让供应链停摆后出现过一些麻烦的延误，但似乎很快恢复了。如果全球作物被毁，我们是不是只能等罐头食品及时到位？如果提前12个月通知，全球能协调好吗？6个月？3个月？火山有预报吗？（看起来有：USGS链接）地质学家多久会“狼来了”一次？
pureliquidhw查看英文原文
How susceptible are we to another catastrophic volcano eruption? After COVID-19 shut down supply chains, there were some problematic delays, but seems like we quickly recovered. If the entire planet's crops were wiped out, we're all just SOL if we don't get canned goods in time? If we had 12 months notice, could we as a planet get it together? 6 months? 3 months? Is there forecasting for volcanoes? (looks like yes: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/forecast.html) How often do geologists cry wolf?
瘟疫打断查士丁尼复兴，并改变地缘政治格局。
我最近在《拜占庭史》播客里听完了这段时期。查士丁尼刚刚重新夺回许多旧西罗马省份，尤其是罗马本身和北非的粮仓。罗马人的形势终于好转时，瘟疫来了。军队不幸过度分散，一半人马死亡或垂死。这成了波斯人、草原骑兵和哥特人难以抗拒的目标，最终在他们为阿拉伯入侵削弱彼此之前，已经都变弱了。
bwanab查看英文原文
I’ve recently gotten through this period in the “History of Byzantium” podcast series. Justinian had just recently retaken many of the old western Roman provinces, not least of which was Rome itself, and the breadbasket of North Africa. Things were finally looking good for the Romans again when the plague hit. The armies were unfortunately overextended and now half their ranks were dead or dying. It was an irresistible target for the Persians, the steppe horsemen and the Goths which ultimately weakened them all just in time for the Arab invasions.
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