历史与人物priceonomics.com
乔治·索罗斯如何击垮英镑
When George Soros Broke the British Pound (2014)
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导读
这篇 Priceonomics 的文章回顾了 1992 年“世纪交易”：乔治·索罗斯如何判断英镑被高估、英国加入欧洲汇率机制(ERM)难以维持，从而大举做空英镑，迫使英国退出 ERM 并为他带来约十亿美元的利润。文章讲述了这一交易的来龙去脉及其对英国政坛的冲击。
为什么经久不衰：它把宏观汇率机制、央行干预与投机者的角色讲成一个完整的故事，是理解固定汇率为何不可持续的入门经典，多年后仍被反复讨论。
HN 评论精选
指出该事件深远影响了英国是否加入欧元区的决策
这一事件是英国最终没有加入欧元区的主要原因。BBC 有一部很棒的纪录片详细讲述了整个过程。
elmar查看英文原文
This incident was the main reason the UK didn't enter the Euro. This wonderful BBC documentary explains everything on detail. https://youtu.be/K_oET45GzMI
追问英镑定价失误的根源及德国政策对危机的推波助澜
我想知道英镑最初为何被定价得如此离谱。他们是不是就按当时的市场价定的？这也是不是英格兰银行储备那么少的原因？他们本可以在决定固定汇率时把价格定低些、买入德国马克来压低英镑并积累储备。另外德国把本币维持得过强，也让其他国家更难跟上，如果德国提高利率或多买别国储备，本可缓解压力。
ummonk查看英文原文
What I would like to see is what led to the pound being so badly mispriced in the first place. Did they just price it at whatever was the prevailing price? And was that why the Bank of England ended up with such small reserves? Presumably they could have priced it lower and bought up Deutschmarks to bring down the price of pounds and build up reserves to start with when they decided to fix it. There is also the question of how much Germany was contributing to the problem by keeping its currency overly strong, making it harder for other countries to stay in sync. Presumably if the Germans had raised interest rates somewhat and / or bought more reserves from other countries they could have helped relieve the pressure.
认为英镑本已崩溃，索罗斯只是抓住了必然发生的机会
政客们总是喜欢在对抗市场的努力注定失败时归咎于投机者，这次也不例外。索罗斯并没有“打垮英镑”，英镑本来就撑不住了，英国政府托市的承诺从一开始就不可持续。政府把戏崩盘时总有人会赚大钱，索罗斯只是赚得比谁都多。这让我想起《乱世佳人》里瑞德·巴特勒的话：“投机者向来名声不佳，尤其是被那些有同样机会却没抓住的人。”
AndrewBissell查看英文原文
Politicians always like to blame speculators when their attempts to fight the market inevitably end in failure, and this instance is no different. Soros didn't "break the GBP," it was already broken and the British government's guarantee to prop it up was never sustainable in the first place. Someone was going to a lot of make money when the British government's scheme unraveled. Soros just happened to make a lot more than anyone else. Reminds me of a good Rhett Butler quote: "Opportunists have always been held in disrepute. Especially by those who had the same opportunities and didn't take them."
认为损失源于不可持续的汇率机制本身，索罗斯只是精准把握了时机
有趣的是，英格兰银行的损失几乎全被归咎于索罗斯。如果承认固定汇率不可维持，那么即使没有索罗斯，央行也会被迫守卫一个守不住的仓位，最终损失到放弃为止。可以合理假设，无论损失发生在一天还是几周几个月内，央行可承受的损失总额是差不多的。索罗斯的过人之处在于看清了必然性，并几乎把整个机会据为己有。
seizethecheese查看英文原文
It's interesting that the loss to the Bank of England is attributed almost entirely to Soros. If you accept that the fixed rate was unsustainable then even without Soros the Bank of England would have been forced to defend an untenable position, and eventually would have lost enough to give up. It's reasonable to assume that the acceptable losses for the Bank of England would have been similar whether they were sustained in one day or over the period of weeks or months. Soros' brilliance was to see the inevitable and take almost the entire opportunity for himself.
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