历史与人物newyorker.com
《奇爱博士》中几乎所有内容都基于事实
Almost Everything in “Dr. Strangelove” Was Based on Fact
2014 — 2020，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
《纽约客》文章指出，库布里克讽刺冷战核威慑的黑色喜剧《奇爱博士》中看似荒诞的情节，几乎都有真实依据——从“末日机器”到意外发射的风险，都源于当时的真实军事与核战略现实。
为什么经久不衰：它提醒我们：历史上官方的保证与否认常常是谎言，这种荒诞背后的真实教训在今天依然适用。
HN 评论精选
意外核战争的风险其实是威慑战略中刻意保留的“随机化威胁”手段
托马斯·谢林的《冲突的战略》中有一章关于意外核战争，非常精彩。理论是：一旦双方都拥有核潜艇，任何先发打击都会引发相互确保摧毁，所以理性方不会先动手；也正因如此，任何“故意发射”的威胁听起来都像虚张声势。所以想威胁敌人时（比如让对方撤走古巴的导弹），你用的是随机化威胁——意外战争的概率，并通过一次次险情来展示它。看看核险情清单就明白：古巴导弹=Defcon 3=意外发射概率高=不符合你的利益。换句话说，意外发射的能力是特性，不是缺陷。
michaelt查看英文原文
There's a fascinating chapter in 'the strategy of conflict' by Thomas Schelling [1] about accidental nuclear war. The theory is once both sides had nuclear submarines, any first launch would trigger mutually assured destruction - so no rational actor would ever launch first. And because of that, any threat to launch /intentionally/ sounds like a bluff. So if you want to threaten your enemy (for example, to make them withdraw some missiles from Cuba) you use a randomized threat - the increased probability of accidental war - which you can demonstrate with lots of near misses. Just look at a list of nuclear near misses [2] once you know that and you can see the message being sent to the Russians: Missiles in cuba = Defcon 3 = High chance of accidental launch = Not in your interests. In other words, the capacity for accidental launches is a feature, not a bug. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Schelling#The_Strategy_of_Conflict_.281960.29 [2] http://nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/issues/accidents/20-mishaps-maybe-caused-nuclear-war.htm
当年的官方保证都是谎言，对今天看待官方说辞也是警示
当年那些官方否认和保证全是胡说八道和谎言——这很好地提醒了我们，如今该如何看待类似的保证。
coldtea查看英文原文
That all those official denials and assurances at the time were BS and lies, serves as a good reminder for how to treat similar assurances in the present.
冷战时期的核武器设计荒诞到超乎想象，且都是真实部署过的
现在的年轻人根本不相信冷战时期活得有多超现实（和可怕）。看看维基百科上英国“蓝孔雀”核装置的条目吧：一枚靠鸡的体温供暖的原子地雷，不是玩笑，是真东西。还有M-29“大卫·克罗克特”战术核无后坐力炮：吉普车载、没有密码锁，射程比杀伤半径还短，炮组得把弹打过山头再躲到吉普车下。人们不仅设想了这些东西，还真的造出来并部署了，冷冰冰地等着实战使用。
cstross查看英文原文
Young folks today just don't believe how downright surreal (and scary) the cold war was to live through. Look, just read this wikipedia entry about the British Blue Peacock nuclear device, and boggle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Peacock Yes. It's a chicken-heated atomic landmine. Not a joke: it was a Real Thing. And so was this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_%28nuclear_device%29 The M-29 Davy Crockett tactical nuclear recoilless rifle. (Jeep-mounted, no PALs, the rocket's flight range was less than its lethal radius of effect: the crew were supposed to fire it over a hill then dive under their jeep for cover.) People not only imagined these things, they built them and deployed them in the stone-cold expectation of using them in anger.
推荐《Command and Control》一书，详述真实核武器事故的工程复杂性
Eric Schlosser 的《Command and Control》非常精彩（也令人不寒而栗），讲述了评论中提到的许多事故。它聚焦1974年大马士革事件，但也涵盖了大量其他“断箭”核事故。核武库和任何机器一样，是需要持续维护的极其复杂的庞然大物——从工程角度看非常开眼界。Netflix 上还有同名纪录片。
teeray查看英文原文
Command and Control by Eric Schlosser[0] was a fascinating (and chilling) read about many of the incidents people have mentioned in the comments here. It focuses closely on the 374-7 Damascus Incident, but covers many many other “Broken Arrow”[1] incidents that have occurred. It’s not a short read, but it’s eye-opening from the engineering perspective that nuclear arsenals are wildly complicated beasts with on-going maintenance, like any machine. EDIT: It’s also available as a documentary on Netflix[2] Not as in-depth, but it covers the Damascus incident pretty well. [0] https://www.amazon.com/dp/0143125788 [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_nuclear_incident_terminology#Broken_Arrow [2] https://www.netflix.com/title/80107656
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