历史与人物npr.org
虚构货币如何拯救巴西（2010）
How Fake Money Saved Brazil (2010)
2015 — 2021，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
NPR《Planet Money》的经典报道：上世纪80年代末巴西陷入恶性通胀，多位经济学家设计了一种名为 URV 的“虚拟货币”，作为计价单位逐步过渡，最终催生了沿用至今的雷亚尔（Real），成功遏制通胀。文章讲述了这一货币心理学实验的来龙去脉。
为什么经久不衰：它用一个精彩的故事讲透了货币本质上是集体信任与计价习惯，几十年后仍是理解通胀与货币改革的最佳入门案例。
HN 评论精选
亲历者解释：URV 之所以成功，是因为它打破了民众对“又一次货币改名”的惯性怀疑
URV 时期我14岁，当时没人真正明白 URV 是什么，也没法向别人解释清楚。但用起来很简单：价格以 URV 标示，它是个好用的参照单位，实践中容易理解和使用，尽管理论上很难懂。巴西人不是对货币失去信心，而是对货币改版和调整失去信心——80年代货币换了好几次名字，政府还多次砍零。所以必须创造一种虚拟的、不同的东西，让人们没法说“又是一次换名”，URV 就是这样成功的。
soneca查看英文原文
> "We didn't understand what it was," says Maria Leopoldina Bierrenbach, a housewife from Sao Paulo. "I used to say it was a fantasy, because it was not real." I was 14 during the URV period. It was like that, nobody really understand what URV was, nor could explain to other what it was. But, it was simple to use. Prices are in URV now, not in the old currency name, not a new currency, it is URV. URV acted as a good parameter, was simple to understand and use in practice, even if hard to understand in theory. It is not that brazilian had lost faith in the currency, but we lost faith in currency changes and readjustment. Brazilian money had changed names several times in the 80s. And several times government had cut zeros from the currency ("Hey, everybody, now 1,000,000 is actualy 1,000 ok?). So there were no point in just creating a new currency. It HAD to be a virtual one, something different, something that people could not say "yeah, just another name change like all the others...". So they created URV, and it worked.
巴西人指出：真正控住通胀的是财政纪律、浮动汇率和通胀目标制这套制度组合
URV 的心理作用确实有帮助，但控制通胀很大程度上靠雷亚尔计划中的“经济三脚架”：政府预算基本盈余、浮动汇率、通胀目标制。补充：现在的政府把这三条都搞砸了（财政操纵、干预汇率），通胀又涨到了12个月8.17%，而美国2014年才0.8%。随着美联储加息，美元会流出巴西，汇率会爆炸，通胀要来了。
gusmd查看英文原文
Brazilian here too. Although the URV maneuver did help psychologically, a lot of controlling the inflation had to do with the so-called "economic tripod" implemented with the Real plan, which basically involved: - Negative primary deficit on the government budget balance; - Floating exchange rate; - Inflation targeting. Addendum: the current government is just so bad at that (fiscal maneuvers to create an artificial negative primary deficit, interfering in the exchange rate by buying/selling dollars at below-market prices, etc) that our inflating is going up again. We just reached 8.17% in the last 12-month period. Compare that to 0.8% in the US for 2014, or even Brazil's 3% some 8 years ago... With the expectation of the Fed raising interests in the US with the improving economy, dollars are going to FLY out of Brazil and the already ridiculous exchange rate (1 USD = 3.15 BRL) is going to explode. Brace yourselves, inflation is coming. edit: typo
评论者认为文章夸大了 URV 的作用，真正的功臣是后来的《财政责任法》
抱歉，这个故事远没有触及通胀下降的真正原因。最重要的变化是《财政责任法》（LRF）：它对联邦、州和市级政府的公共支出增加了监督和控制，要求预算增加经国会批准，禁止“印钱”式操作，并要求向审计法院提交详细账目以供审批。
leovonl查看英文原文
Sorry, but this story gets nowhere near the real reasons for the inflation reduction. The major and most important change on the Brazilian government to achieve this was the LRF - Lei da Responsabilidade Fiscal, "Fiscal Responsibility Law" in English (free translation). With these law, federal, state and municipal governments, which added much more oversight and control to public spending, requiring budget increases to go through congress, forbidding "money printing" practices and also requiring detailed accounting records to be submitted to a branch of the judiciary (TCU) for approval. I could go on and write a huge document here, there's a lot of historical questions involved too. If anyone is interested in more details please let me know.
经济政策不应交给不懂经济学的政客，否则悲剧会不断重演
令人痛心的是，这么多国家的经济被不懂经济基本原理的政客毁掉。军事事务上我们信任将军的专业判断，经济政策上却坚持由职业政客和民意来决定。只要这一点不改变，我们注定会不断重演这种新手级错误。
whack查看英文原文
It's saddening the number of national economies that have been destroyed by politicians who don't understand economic fundamentals. When it comes to most matters like the military for the example, we trust our generals to organise and manage the Armed Forces as per their best judgement. And yet, when it comes to economic policy, we persist in thinking that it should be implemented by career politicians and popular opinion. As long as that doesn't change, I think we're doomed to see endless repeats of such rookie mistakes.
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