思考与写作patrickcollison.com编辑精选
Fast:那些被做得极快的事物
Fast
2019 — 2025,它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页(≥ 50 分)的那次投稿,空心点是没冲上去的投稿,点越大分数越高。
导读
Patrick Collison 整理的 Fast 清单,罗列历史上在极短时间内完成的大型项目与成就,包括阿拉斯加公路、阿波罗计划、JavaScript 原型等。它把“完成速度”作为可比较的尺度,常被用来对照当代基础设施和公共项目为何显得缓慢。
为什么经久不衰:它用具体而惊人的工期数字把“执行力”变成可比较的标尺,持续触发关于监管、劳动力与制度代价的争论。
HN 评论精选
阿拉斯加公路的“234天”只是军用可通行状态,离现代公路和公众开放还有多年,需加限定。
阿拉斯加公路1942年开始,234天建成1700英里,连接不列颠哥伦比亚省东部与费尔班克斯。我在Dawson Creek长大,当地以“阿拉斯加公路零英里起点”为荣。但1942年版和多数人想象的高速公路完全不同:没有铺沥青,只适合军车,士兵能边走边临时修路、有生存技能并可无线电求援。它直到1948年才向公众开放,所以更合适的估计是6年而非6个月;而且为适合乘用车持续重建,里程缩短近20%。这确是成就,但省略这些重要限定条件是有意义的。
cldellow查看英文原文
> The Alaska Highway. Starting in 1942, 1,700 miles of highway were built over the course of 234 days, connecting eastern British Columbia with Fairbanks, Alaska. I grew up in Dawson Creek. Our claim to fame: "Mile Zero of the Alaska Highway starts here!" The Alaska Highway as built in 1942 is nothing like a highway that most people would envision. It wasn't paved, for example. It was good enough for military vehicles with crews of soldiers who could make ad hoc repairs to the road as needed while they transited through, who had extensive survival skills, and could literally radio for assistance if needed. It wasn't opened to the public until 1948 -- so perhaps 6 years, not 6 months, is a better estimate of its time. It's also shrunk by almost 20% as it has been continually rebuilt to make it passable by passenger vehicles. It's an accomplishment, no doubt, but I feel like omitting these significant caveats is meaningful.
快项目常依赖廉价或高风险劳动,或依赖国家与军事力量,不能简单归因于繁文缛节。
Collison 的理论页引导读者把“繁文缛节”当作如今变慢的解释,但我认为很多案例背后有更简单的隐藏变量。第一是劳动力价格。多数国家20世纪变富了,美国不再到处是愿意每天在危险建筑工地干16小时的绝望人群。帝国大厦400天建成需要14条人命(可能还有更多伤害);我猜今天平均80层建筑死亡人数少得多。第二是州或军事干预。阿波罗、五角大楼、柏林空运都是美国军事鼎盛时期的项目。深圳的快速增长肯定是中国某个规划部门的工作。有动力的非民主机构能快速办大事,我并不惊讶。
reso查看英文原文
Collison's theories page nudges the reader to look at "red tape" as an explanation for why things go slower these days, but I think there are hidden variables behind a lot of these which are simpler explanations. First is the price of labour. Most countries have gotten wealthier over the 20th century, America is not full of desperate people willing to work 16 hour days in dangerous construction jobs any more. The Empire State Building, as an example, required 14 human sacrifices to build in 400 days (and likely many more injuries). I hazard to guess the average 80 story building today is built with much fewer deaths. Second is state or military intervention. Apollo, the Pentagon, and the Berlin Airlift are all projects of the US military at the height of their influence. Shenzen's fast growth is certainly some Chinese planning department's work. It isn't surprisng to me that motivated non-democratic institutions can make big things happen quickly.
用每米成本和工期对比,凸显旧金山公交项目与历史工程的速度和成本差距。
旧金山2001年提出 Van Ness 公交车道,2022年才开通,历时约7600天;官方称因开工后雨天增多而延期。项目耗资3.1亿美元,约每米10万美元;而阿拉斯加公路在偏远冻原修建,按2019美元计每米793美元。类似地,金门大桥1930年代4年建成,通胀调整后成本5亿美元,提前完工且低于预算10%;桥下防自杀网项目2008年启动,多次延期至今,总预算2.11亿美元。
paxys查看英文原文
> San Francisco proposed a new bus lane on Van Ness in 2001. Its opening was delayed to 2022, yielding a project duration of around 7,600 days. “The project has been delayed due to an increase of wet weather since the project started,” said Paul Rose, a San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency spokesperson. The project will cost $310 million, i.e. $100,000 per meter. The Alaska Highway, mentioned above, constructed across remote tundra, cost $793 per meter in 2019 dollars. A similar example – the Golden Gate Bridge was built in 4 years in the 1930s at a (inflation adjusted) cost of $500M, ahead of schedule and 10% under budget. A project to install suicide nets below the bridge started in 2008 and is still ongoing after multiple delays, with a total projected cost of $211M.
JS 十天原型是速度带来长期设计债的反例。
“JavaScript。Brendan Eich 用10天实现第一个原型”——这是“快”很糟糕的好例子。开发者此后一直为 JS 的设计缺陷付出代价,额外工作达数十亿小时。(一次迭代很难完美,但10天确实太仓促,Brendan 自己也说过)列表上其他一些项目确实很厉害!
sandstrom查看英文原文
”JavaScript. Brendan Eich implemented the first prototype for JavaScript in 10 days” A good example of when fast is horrible. Developers have been paying the price for all the design flaws in JS ever since — billions of hours of extra work. (yes, it’s hard to design something perfect in one iteration, but I think we can all agree that 10 days was rushed, Brendan has said so himself) Some of the other items on the list are really impressive though!
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