思考与写作antipope.org
再也不会有这样的东西被建造出来
"Nothing like this will be built again"
2011 — 2022，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
查理·斯特罗斯（Charlie Stross）在这篇博文里细致描述了英国 AGR（先进气冷堆）核电站——以苏格兰 Torness 为例——的工程构造与层层冗余的安全设计，从反应堆本体到四角布置的柴油发电机。字里行间是一种告别式的赞叹：这种体量庞大、由国家意志与重工业能力堆出来的 20 世纪巨型工程，英国恐怕再也造不出来了。
为什么经久不衰：它既是难得的技术科普，也是一份关于工程能力与国家意志如何衰退的时代记录——十几年过去，文中那句“不会再建第二次”反而越来越像预言。
HN 评论精选
推荐预约参观 Torness，并顺路看附近的地质学圣地 Siccar Point。
值得一提的是，Torness 的游客中心最近重新开放了，看起来需要提前预约（为了安全检查）；不过多年前我详细参观过另一座 AGR 电站，我猜这里值得一去。另外，如果你去 Torness 又对科学有兴趣（很可能如此），不妨顺路看看附近的 Siccar Point 赫顿不整合面——18 世纪地质学家詹姆斯·赫顿最早在这里找到地球极其古老的证据，他的旅伴约翰·普莱费尔形容道：“凝视时间深渊如此深处，心神仿佛为之眩晕。”
arethuza查看英文原文
Worth noting that the visitor centre for Torness recently re-opened, it looks like you need to make an appointment in advance (for security checks) but, having had a detailed tour of another AGR plant years ago, I suspect it may be worth visiting: http://www.edfenergy.com/about-us/energy-generation/nuclear-generation/nuclear-visitor-centres.shtml Also, if you do visit Torness and you have an interest in science (which seems likely) then you might want to visit the nearby Hutton's Unconformity at Siccar Point - this is one of the places where 18th century geologist James Hutton first found evidence of the tremendous age of the Earth, as his travelling companion John Playfair put it: "The mind seemed to grow giddy by looking so far back into the abyss of time" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutton%27s_Unconformity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siccar_Point
这种失落感源于审美：现代工程更高效，却失去了旧工业巨构的体量感。
面对这类 20 世纪的工程项目，人常会产生“这种东西不会再造了”的感觉，因为现代建筑的气质很不一样——更流线、更轻巧，不再那么厚重。交通基建也是如此：哥本哈根地铁（地上地下都有）几乎在各方面都优于旧式建造，但主观上就是没有纽约地铁或芝加哥高架那种巨型钢柱、几十万颗铆钉带来的震撼。
_delirium查看英文原文
One often gets the "nothing like this will be built again" feeling around these kinds of engineering projects from the 20th century, since modern constructions tend to have a very different feel, more sleek and less massive. Also true with things like transit infrastructure: even though a modern subway or elevated train line, like the Copenhagen metro (which has both), is better in just about every way from the old style of construction, it subjectively doesn't have the same impressive feel of something like the NYC subway or Chicago El, with their massive steel columns and hundreds of thousands of rivets.
冗余设计挡不住“未知的未知”，核电本质上是对社会长期稳定的押注。
我敢说福岛的备用电源系统完全符合这套说辞：“除了电网连接，电站四角还各有四座 12 兆瓦柴油发电机站——每站两台发电机，任意一台都能为反应堆安全系统供电。”不幸的是，福岛所有发电机都被同一场海啸淹了。一个能同时影响所有发电机的事件概率有多大？想想电磁脉冲、被污染的燃料、一大团二氧化碳让发动机熄火……每一样都极不可能，可你怎么为“未知的未知”做规划？我认为核电站最可能（也被低估）的风险，是社会因重大（气候）危机和/或战争而发生系统性变化。想想苏联解体，那显然提高了若干核电站的风险、削减了维护预算。任何显著的海平面上升、干旱或洪水都可能触发这类事件（哪怕反应堆本身没受影响，它周围的社会也受了）。所以我认为核电是通往净零的一条高风险路径：你建的每一座电站，都是对社会至少 75 年稳定的押注。
tda查看英文原文
I bet the Fukushima backup power system would have fit this explanation perfectly: > in addition to the grid connection, there are four twelve megawatt diesel generator stations spaced around each corner of the plant -- each with two generators, any one of which is able to provide operating power to keep the reactor's safety systems working. Unfortunately for Fukushima, all generators were flooded by a single Tsunami. What are the odds of an unknown event that will affect all generators? Think of EMP, contaminated fuel, a large cloud of C)2 suffocating the engines... All seem highly unlikely, but how do you plan for the unknown unknowns? The most likely (and I think underestimated) risk for Nuclear plants is a systemic change due to a large (climate?) crisis and/or war. Think of the collapse of the Soviet Union, that definitely increased risk and reduced maintenance budget for a few Nuclear plants. Any significant sea level rise, drought or flood could very well trigger such events (even if the reactor is not affected directly, the society around it will be). That is why I think nuclear is a risky option to reach net-zero; every plant you build is a bet on the future stability of society for at least 75 years (time until the plant will be safely decommissioned by future generations). I would feel much safer in a world covered in solar panels, wind turbines and transmission lines (and highly variable spot pricing) than in one with nuclear plants that require constant care by experts and that even in the best case incur a huge cost on society to safely decommission. > In 2016 the European Commission assessed that European Union's nuclear decommissioning liabilities were seriously underfunded by about 118 billion euros, with only 150 billion euros of earmarked assets to cover 268 billion euros of expected decommissioning costs covering both dismantling of nuclear plants and storage of radioactive parts and waste. France had the largest shortfall with only 23 billion euros of earmarked assets to cover 74 billion euros of expected costs [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_decommissioning
亲历者视角：老旧的办公设备、严苛的安全文化、庞大的人员编制，以及反应堆裂纹导致提前关停。
几年前我参观过 Torness，那是一座值得慢慢逛的工程奇迹。几处细节很突出：老式的活页文件夹、CRT 显示器上的 Windows 95 屏保。安全至上的氛围也很明显——不做风险评估就不动手，协助我们参观的年轻学徒因为没扶扶手被带队人员训了一顿，显然这是被反复灌输的。最让我惊讶的是运营电站的人数：我不知道同规模燃气电站是什么水平，但这里有成百上千的人，大多是项目管理和安全岗位。可惜反应堆已开始出现裂纹，电站会比原计划提前关停。疫情期间参观暂停了，如果关停前重开，务必去看看。
eggfriedrice查看英文原文
I went on a tour round Torness a couple of years ago and it's a fantastic engineering marvel to mosey around. A few things stand out, like the old-tech ring binders and Windows 95 screensavers on CRTs. The safety focus was clear. Nothing was done without a risk assessment, and the young apprentice who was helping with our tour was given a telling off by the tour staff as he wasn't holding the handrails - as had clearly been drummed into them. What really struck me was how many people were involved in running the plant. I don't know how it compares to similarly sized gas plants, but there were hundreds and hundreds of people employed - mostly in project management/safety roles. I wonder how it compares to how many folk are employed in renewables, we have a lot of wind power here now. It's a shame that cracks have started to form in the reactors so the plants will be shutdown earlier than planned. It looks like tours are suspended for Covid, but go round if they open up again before shutdown!
历次讨论
同类还值得读
保持你的身份认同足够小
Keep Your Identity Small (2009)
Paul Graham 2009 年的一篇短文：人一旦把某个话题当成自己身份的一部分（宗教、政治、编程语言皆然），讨论就会退化成站队和争吵，因为此时争论的不再是事实，而是"我是谁…
思考与写作上首页 5 次 · 2009–2021paulgraham.com编辑精选苏格拉底式教学法：通过提问而非讲授来教学
The Socratic Method: Teaching by Asking Instead of by Telling
记录了作者用纯提问的方式，引导一群小学生从零推导出二进制计数法的课堂实验，展示了苏格拉底式教学法的惊人效果。
思考与写作上首页 5 次 · 2011–2022garlikov.com你不能说的话
What You Can't Say (2004)
Paul Graham 2004 年的经典文章，探讨那些因道德时尚而不能公开说出的观点。
思考与写作上首页 5 次 · 2014–2022paulgraham.com编辑精选龙暴君的寓言（2005）
The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant (2005)
哲学家 Nick Bostrom 于 2005 年写的一则寓言：一条每天吞噬数千人的巨龙（隐喻死亡与衰老）长期被人类当作不可抗拒的自然规律接受，直到有人提出并最终用导弹将其杀死，…
思考与写作上首页 5 次 · 2009–2021nickbostrom.com编辑精选现实有着惊人的细节量
Reality has a surprising amount of detail (2017)
2017 年的博文指出，现实远比我们以为的充满细节：我们习惯用简化的心智模型看世界，直到真正动手做事（比如作者举的造楼梯例子）才发现处处是未曾预料的细节。
思考与写作上首页 4 次 · 2018–2025johnsalvatier.org编辑精选