创业与商业paulgraham.com
为什么要在经济糟糕时创业
Why to Start a Startup in a Bad Economy
2008 — 2022，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
Paul Graham 的经典短文，论证经济衰退并不是创业的障碍：真正决定成败的是创始人和产品，而非宏观环境；衰退期反而竞争更少、人才更易招、成本更低。文章在 2008 金融危机、2020 疫情和 2022 下行期多次被重新翻出，成为每次经济寒冬里的定心丸。
为什么经久不衰：每逢经济下行它都会被重新顶上首页，因为它用简洁有力的逻辑破除'等经济好了再创业'的迷思，十几年后依然适用。
HN 评论精选
衰退期真正的难题是退出渠道变少，创业公司得熬更久
这篇文章忽略了我常听到的主要反对理由：衰退期退出机会更少。IPO 不可能，也没几家公司有收购心情。所以你不能快速做大然后趁到顶前卖掉，只能让流量持续增长直到市场回暖。这很难，尤其创始人容易厌倦，很多人到时可能直接去做新东西了。（话说回来，也很难想出更好的消磨时间的方式——就算失败的创业也比读研更有教育意义。）
aaronsw查看英文原文
This article seems to ignore the main argument I've heard: exit strategies are fewer in a recession. IPOs are out of the question and few companies are in an acquisition mood. So instead of growing fast and selling out before you hit your plateau, you have keep your traffic climbing until the market picks back up. That's really hard, esp. since founders have a tendency to get bored. I expect many will start something new at that point anyway, so I can see why it'd be tempting to skip the step in between. (That said, it's hard to think of a better way to spend the time -- even a failed startup's more educational than grad school.)
成功靠的是赶上技术浪潮而非时机好坏，且看好硬件/能源类创业
文章不错，但不同意开头微软/苹果的例子。MS 和 Apple 只是恰好赶上微型计算机开始腾飞的浪潮（同时有成千上万家同类创业公司死掉了）。我担心的是免费/增值模式会很快失去动力，更多 web 应用会开始尝试变现。我认为下一个大增长领域是太阳能等替代能源，创业圈需要更多'发明'。Web 应用虽然启动便宜，但大量不产生收入的公司加上低门槛，会让传统 VC 另寻投资方向。
brk查看英文原文
Good article, but I disagree with the Microsoft/Apple example in the beginning. MS and Apple happened to come along when the microcomputer was really starting to take off, and they were able to ride that wave (while 1000's of other microcomputer startups crashed). One thing that worries me personally about starting the "stereotypical" HN startup right now, is that I think the free/fremium model is going to lose steam FAST. My prediction is that you will see more companies trying to start monetizing their web-app soon. FWIW, TipJoy is well positioned to take advantage of this if my prediction is true. Of course, I've always been a hardware/product startup hacker, but I've had a couple of rounds in software and Web 2.0 companies. So, I'm not as immersed in web-app funding cycles as some others here are. I would look to solar and certain other viable alternative energy options right now as the next major tech growth sector. I think the tech startup world needs to see more "inventions" (again, admitting my own bias). While many here may disagree with me, one of the problems with web-apps is that while they are cheap to get going (relatively speaking), I think that the saturation of non-revenue producing web-app companies, coupled with the low cost of starting them, will make many traditional VCs look elsewhere for their next investments. The web-app community needs more investors like YC, that keep the investments and process realistic.
做出人们想要的东西才是根本，经济环境是次要的
又一篇好文 Paul。互联网演进的某个时刻我们忘了商业的黄金法则：只要你做出人们想要的东西，他们就会付钱（直接或间接），你就能赚钱。衰退与否无所谓。
charlesju查看英文原文
Another great essay Paul, I wrote up a blog post with similar conclusions last week: http://www.charlesju.com/2008/10/5-ways-recessions-help-startups.html Sorry for the plug, I just thought it was funny that we're on the same side of the equation, when everyone else in the world isn't. It seems to me that somewhere along the evolution of the internet we forgot the golden rule of any business: If you make stuff people want, they'll pay for it (either directly or indirectly), and you'll make money. Recession or not.
'关键看创始人'的说法令人沮丧，因为韧性似乎是天生的、无法习得
'关键在创始人'这个说法让我很沮丧。这是典型的 VC 视角：VC 有一群人可以挑，如果你的特质不符合要求就不该创业。我相信这是真的，只是感觉如果你没有那种韧性，你就是运气不好、进不了这个俱乐部，而且这不是你能努力改变的——毕竟如果能改善那就可以教，但 PG 等人似乎认为（我觉得他们是对的）这是天生的。
hwers查看英文原文
This whole “what matters is the founder” idea really discourages me. It’s such a VC perspective. The VC has a flock of people they pick from to invest in and if your traits doesn’t fit the necessary requirements you shouldn’t start a startup. And I’m sure it’s true too. It’s just that it feels like if you don’t have the grit etc necessary you’re just out of luck and out of this club and it’s not really something you can work on. (After all if it was something you could improve then it could be taught but PG et al seems to think - and I think they’re right - that it’s an innate thing.)
历次讨论
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