创业与商业defmacro.org
如何挑选创业点子
How to pick startup ideas
2015 — 2016，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
这篇文章探讨如何挑选创业点子，作者主张通过观察技术趋势、尽早进入市场来获得先发优势，并强调从真实问题出发。评论认为其建议偏泛，先发优势未必成立，时机与运气同样关键。
为什么经久不衰：创业点子选择是永恒话题，文章提供创始人视角的框架，并持续引发关于先发优势、时机与信息源的讨论。
HN 评论精选
质疑先发优势的必要性，认为运气和市场时机作用更大。
有趣的文章，很多好东西，但我觉得有点太泛，实用性不强。比如作者说：“所以你需要比任何人都先推出可行产品进入市场。”这种说法我质疑——有很多公司在饱和市场里并非先发者却成功了。事实上，先发有时是劣势，因为作为创业公司你必须花大量时间和金钱教育市场。作者“看趋势、提前布局”的方法很好，但很少有人能做到。在创业中，我通常看到运气的作用比大家愿意承认的更大——你创办公司，碰巧在正确的时间遇上正确的市场浪潮。肯定收藏。
inthewoods查看英文原文
Interesting article - a lot of good stuff in it but I found it a bit to general to be really useful. As an example, the author states: "So you need to get to market with a viable product before anyone else does." That's the type of statement that I question - there are plenty of examples of companies creating products in saturated markets where they were not the first mover. In fact, sometime being a first mover can be a disadvantage as you must, as a startup, spend huge amounts of time and money educating the market. Now, the author's approach of "look at the trend, get in front of it" is great - but it's pretty rare that someone can do that. In startups, I've usually seen that luck plays a bigger role in it than anyone wants to admit - that is, you start a company, and you happen onto the right market wave at the right time. Definitely bookmarking it!
批评文章所谓技术公司实为消费应用，真正技术公司靠难事；先发优势不绝对，运气重要。
他所说的“技术”公司并不是在技术领域创新的公司。他实际在谈面向消费者的在线应用创业公司（“垃圾应用”），这类有明确的流水线过程。真正的技术公司定义是能做别人难以做到的难事。先发者有优势，但不是压倒性的。IBM不是第一台个人电脑——苹果和Commodore是。微软不是x86机器第一个操作系统——Digital Research是。AOL曾主导社交网络。Facebook进入的是相当成熟的空间——Myspace、Geocities等已是巨头。运气确实很重要。如果CP/M作者Gary Kildall在IBM寻找新PC操作系统那天在办公室，个人计算历史可能大不相同。
Animats查看英文原文
What he refers to as "technology" companies are not ones innovating in any technological area. He's really talking about online application business-to-consumer startups ("appcrap"), for which there's a well-defined assembly line process. A real technology company is defined by their ability to do something hard that others have trouble doing. The first mover has an advantage, but it's not overwhelming. IBM didn't come out with the first personal computer - Apple and Commodore did. Microsoft didn't have the first operating system for x86 machines - Digital Research did. AOL once dominated social networking. Facebook moved into a quite mature space - Myspace, Geocities, and several others were big companies when Facebook started. Luck does indeed play a big part. If Gary Kildall, the author of CP/M, had been in the office the day IBM was looking for an OS for their new PC, the history of personal computing could have been very different.
从创始人视角强调信息来源：新闻太晚，论坛看小众，亲身问题或快速增长的小众社区更靠谱。
我喜欢这篇文章。很多创业建议偏向投资者视角，这篇从创始人视角非常真实。如果让我总结并发挥这里的观点，我会说“要非常小心你的信息来源”。如果你因为新闻文章听说某事而得到创业点子，那太晚了。如果来自互联网论坛，可能有机会，但取决于论坛多小众、多前沿。如果来自你或朋友亲身经历的问题且你现在知道怎么解决，可能有机会，但要认真考虑有多少人像你朋友、未来是否会增长。如果你自己就在一个快速增长的小众社区，可能有很多可探索的、有成果的创业点子。
nostrademons查看英文原文
I like this article. Much of the advice on startups is biased from an investor perspective, this is something that's very real from a founder's perspective. If I had to summarize and riff off of the ideas here, I'd phrase it as "Be very careful about where you're getting your information from." If you got your startup idea because you heard about something from a news article, you are way too late. If you got it from an Internet forum, there's a chance that you might be on to something, but it depends on how niche the forum is and how close to the bleeding ege. If you got it from a problem that you or a friend personally had and you know how to solve it right now, you may be on to something, but you have to carefully consider how many other people are like your friend and whether that's going to grow in the future. If you're in a niche community yourself and that community is growing rapidly, there are probably lots of things you can explore that might be fruitful startup ideas.
引用《The Originals》称先发优势不存在，后进者失败率更低且可专注质量。
我刚读完《The Originals》，他基本用了整整一章讲先发优势是扯淡。书中观点：研究表明不存在先发优势；市场更明确时后进者可以专注提供更优质的产品，而不是一开始纠结提供什么；风险寻求者容易被成为第一吸引，易冲动决策，风险规避的创业者则旁观等待合适机会、平衡风险组合再进入；失败率47%对8%（先发者/后进者）。
misiti3780查看英文原文
I just finished "The Originals" and he basically has a whole chapter on how first movers advantage is bullshit. Taken from the book: * Studies show this does not exist * Since market is more defined when settlers enter, they can focus on providing superior quality instead of deliberating about what to offer in the first place * Risk seekers are drawn to being first, and they're prone to impulsive decisions. Risk-adverse entrepreneurs watch from the sidelines, waiting for the right opportunity and balancing their risk portfolios before entering. * Failure rates aof 47%/8% (first movers / settlers)
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