职业与工作方法danluu.com
达到 95 分位其实没那么难
95th percentile isn't that hard to reach
2020 — 2022，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
Dan Luu 讨论为什么在很多技能上达到前 5%（95 百分位）并没有想象中难：关键不在于天赋，而在于多数参与者并没有主动、系统地练习提高。文章也提醒“95 百分位”取决于你如何定义比较群体，在高度竞争、人人都在刻意训练的领域并不成立。
为什么经久不衰：它把“变强”从天赋叙事拉回可操作的练习与反馈，并促使读者反思比较基准，因此多年后仍值得读。
HN 评论精选
论点常被标题带偏；关键是多数人不刻意练习，但竞争性领域例外。
大多数顶层回复都在回应标题而不是实际论点。Dan 的论点是：在多数活动中你很容易变得相对优秀，因为做这些活动的大多数人并没有主动想办法变好。“95 百分位”可能不是最好的说法，因为像竞技体育这样几乎人人都在主动提高的领域并不适用，Dan 也知道这一点；但这不改变一个事实：有很多活动只要你练习就能轻松超过大多数人。
malisper查看英文原文
It seems like most of the top level responses are responding to the title and not the actual argument. The argument Dan is making is that you can easily get relatively good at most activities. This is because most of the people doing those activities aren't actively trying to get to get better. 95th percentile is probably not the best way to put it since there are tons of activities where nearly everyone is trying to actively get better such as competitive sports. Dan's thesis doesn't hold true for those activities and he knows that. That doesn't change the fact that there are a ton of activities out there where you can easily get better than most people by practicing.
通过操纵比较群体可以让“95%”成立；真正持续训练并不容易。
这其实只是定义问题。文章前提像是说在任何事情上进入 95% 都很容易，比如在“练硬拉的男人”里，而不是全人类里。但作者又澄清，不是指“经常练习的人”中的 95%，于是这个范围又不算数了；结果变成“这辈子从地上举过东西的人”？那就没那么了不起。把范围换成“定期去健身房练硬拉的人”，两年内进入前者的 95% 当然容易，因为定期练硬拉的人本来就不到总人口的 5%。问题是，真正坚持训练两年并不轻松，需要投入和健康条件，这基本就是“做运动的人”和“不做运动的人”的差别。
krick查看英文原文
Yeah, no, that's just about lousy definitions. The premise suggests that it's easy to become 95%-ile in anything, say, deadlifting among men who deadlift and not just entire population of the planet Earth. Before I can suggest author to try, he hastily corrects himself, that it doesn't mean "95%-ile among people who practice regularly", so "men who deadlift" is invalid domain after all. Rather, it should be... "people who lifted a thing from the ground at any point of their lives"? Not that impressive. And, sure, just converting yourself from "people who lifted a thing" to "people [of the same sex] who actually go to the gym regularly and deadlift" will get you into 95%-ile of the first, broader domain within a couple of years, because people who regularly deadlift would already be less than 5% of the population. The thing is, it isn't that easy to actually train for deadlifting for a couple of years, it assumes dedication, some health requirements and basically is the difference between people who do some sport and people who don't. This is obviously ridiculous comparision to anyone talking about anything but playing Overwatch. So, sure, this surprising life lesson will turn out to be true if you continue to craft the domains you compare in such way that you match competitive ice skaters vs people who were on the ice rink one or twice, MMA fighters vs guys who were in a streetfight once back at school, etc. And while I don't play Overwatch, I don't think it's actually different than that, it's just that "people, who both can and want to waste significant portions of their life time in a dedicated attempt to become better Overwatch players" are less than 5% of people, who created an account on the Overwatch server (or whatever).
学习效果来自专注和反馈，而非天赋。
我很尊重 Dan 的极简网站，但加一点 CSS 会让它可读性高很多。内容上我非常认同：大多数人其实不擅长学习，学校也不教这个。我做数学家教时并不觉得自己特别厉害，技巧都是从老师那里学来的；但我提供的是一小时高度专注且有反馈的学习，这比十小时略微分心、几乎没有反馈的学习有效得多。进步基本上就是专注加反馈。
hardwaregeek查看英文原文
Much respect for Dan's minimalist site (can't say I've ever waited for it to load) but this much CSS makes it so much more readable: html { display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center; line-height: 1.2em; font-size: 1.1em; } body { width: 650px } As for the actual content, I agree with it a lot. I suspect most people are quite bad at learning. It's not something that's taught in schools, and when it is, it's probably lost upon kids due to their lack of executive decision making skills. For instance, I tutor kids in math. I don't think I'm an amazing tutor. My limited bag of tricks are stolen from my teachers. But what I do provide is a fully concentrated hour long study time with feedback. Which is more effective than 10 hours of slightly distracted studying with little to no feedback. Basically, improvement is a combo of concentration and feedback. Sounds facile but it does work. There's a great Donald Glover^[1] quote about this: > “I realized, if I want to be good at P.E., I have to be good at basketball. So I went home and shot baskets in our driveway for six hours, until my mother called me in. The next day, I was good enough that you wouldn’t notice I was bad. And I realized my superpower.” [1]: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/03/05/donald-glover-cant-save-you
在高度竞争的游戏里，刻意练习也未必能轻松进前 5%。
我承认只是略读。但在电子游戏范围内，我不确定 Overwatch 是很好的例子，因为它总体偏休闲。我玩 Counter-Strike 和 StarCraft 的各种版本几十年了，有时会刻意练习，包括读策略、玩自定义地图练特定技能、看提升水平的系列视频。尽管如此，投入数百小时后，我不认为自己曾在任何排行榜上进入过前 50%。能进入前 5% 的人确实很强，能以极高精度执行复杂策略。生活中有很多高度竞争的领域，成为顶尖需要天赋、大量时间投入和一点运气，我不想贬低这一点。
xigency查看英文原文
Admittedly, I only skimmed this. But within the space of video games, I’m not sure Overwatch is a stunning example since it’s generally a casual game. I’ve been playing various iterations of Counter-Strike and StarCraft for decades. Sometimes with deliberate practice, including reading strategies, playing custom maps to practice certain skills, and watching series aimed at improving level of play. And despite the hundreds of hours invested I don’t believe I’ve ever cracked the top 50% in any leaderboard rankings. Anyone in the top 5% is definitely that good, executing complex strategies with extreme precision. There are lots of areas in life that are highly competitive — where being the best takes raw talent, a huge time investment, and a bit of luck. I wouldn’t try to diminish that.
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