科学与数学ourworldindata.org编辑精选
可再生能源为何变得如此便宜、如此之快
Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?
2020 — 2022，它一次次回到首页
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导读
Our World in Data 的这篇文章解释了为什么太阳能和风能等可再生能源的成本在几十年内呈指数级下降，远快于化石燃料。文章将这种快速降价归因于学习曲线效应：技术每翻一倍，成本就按固定比例下降，而政策支持和大规模生产推动了这一良性循环。
为什么经久不衰：它用清晰的数据和'学习曲线'框架解释了能源转型的核心经济逻辑，这一逻辑至今仍在塑造能源政策和市场走向。
HN 评论精选
化石燃料衰落不可避免，但世界对依赖石油的国家的经济后果毫无准备
文章说的都对，但漏掉了真正的问题。可再生能源成本指数级下降已是不争的事实，电池也在学习曲线上不断变好，化石燃料的退出不可避免。真正该思考的是后果：依赖化石燃料经济的国家将经历类似英国煤炭业的崩溃式衰退。比如沙特阿拉伯无法自给自足时会发生什么？我们并没有为这些后果做好准备。
rossdavidh查看英文原文
All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for that change, we can think about the actual consequences. It's inevitable; fossil fuels are on the way out. What does that mean, besides lower carbon? It means that countries which rely on fossil fuels for their economy, are going to see the same kind of crushing economic decline that, say, the UK coal industry has. What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death? To be clear, I'm not saying we should somehow try to prevent fossil fuels exiting the scene. The change in energy sources to lower-carbon ones is an old one, and there's no way to stop it, nor should we try. Wood gave way to coal and then oil and then natural gas, and the process will continue with zero-carbon sources like photovoltaics. That's a bullet that's already been fired, and there's no way to stuff it back inside the barrel of the gun. But, do we really have a plan for the consequences, not only in Saudi Arabia but also every other nation that's dependent on oil? Hint: we do not.
太阳能已在巴基斯坦农村等地区实际取代柴油，变革正在底层发生
令人惊叹的是，巴基斯坦农村的农民选择用太阳能灌溉作物（光伏板+变频器+10马力三相电机），或用来磨小麦。视频评论区都在问价格和联系方式——这显然是一场巨变。相比需要人手摇启动的80年老柴油机，太阳能省力得多。
jhallenworld查看英文原文
You know what's amazing? Farmers in rural Pakistan choosing to prefer solar to irrigate their crops (panels + VFD/inverter + 10 HP 3-phase motor): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfNgF0WTeCM Or grinding wheat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G2evJOiU9I The comments in these video are all about how much does it cost, what is your contact number, etc. Clearly this is a sea-change. Also amazing that they all have cell phones :-) The old system included 80+ year old hand-started diesel engines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZuqT7dgM08 These are very cool, but solar requires less man-power.
动态定价比等待电池技术更能解决可再生能源的间歇性问题
我讨厌'我们只差电池了'这种论调。如果电价能随可再生能源的供应波动——比如阳光充足时0.02美元/度，没有阳光时0.30美元/度——消费者会迅速调整行为：在单位给车充电、定时烘干机、白天把热水器烧到很烫、白天猛开空调晚上'滑行'过夜。
mrfusion查看英文原文
I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day and coasts through the night. Same idea for your freezer. Heck I’d even blast my AC to ten degrees below where I want it during the day and then ride out the night.
中国出于治理空气污染和能源安全的政治意愿，大规模投资才造就了可再生能源的降价
文章暗示了'投资'的作用，但没明说政治意愿的重要性。可再生能源变便宜的一大原因是2008年北京奥运会前后，中国受够了城市空气污染，且油气大量依赖进口，于是从风电开始、2010/11年起转向光伏，大规模投资产能，即使当时还很贵。如今中国装机量是第二名的三倍且仍在加速。巴黎协定后来又加了把劲，但最初是解决空气污染的政治决定。
sfifs查看英文原文
The article hints at it through the "investments" angle but doesn't come out and state the importance of political will. One big reason renewables became so cheap is because around 2008 Beijing Olympics, China decided that they were done with air pollution in the cities. IIRC at that time coal power and other industrial production had to be stopped for a couple of months in the surrounding provinces to make the games happen and people (importantly top bureaucrats who lived in Beijing) decided they liked the clean air. China doesn't have any substantial deposits of fossil fuels that give get clean air (like gas that US has) and Oil and Gas has to be largely imported leaving them at the mercy of international market prices and currency fluctuations. So they started heavily investing in renewables production capacity, first in wind (China's installed capacity started doubling yoy around then) and then Solar from 2010/11 even if they were expensive then and it wasn't clear how much of a learning rate benefit there would be. Similarly massive electrification of public transport and introducing subways later in the decade again to reduce pollution in the cities. Now i believe they have 3X the installed base of the next biggest country (US) and still accelerating. Later on the Paris Climate treaty just added extra momentum with the climate change and carbon reduction angle. But it was originally a political decision that took political will - to get cleaner air in the cities even at a possibly higher cost.
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