思考与写作sites.google.com
十项预言（2004）
Ten predictions (2004)
2013 — 2015，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
这是 Steve Yegge 在 2004 年写下的十条关于软件行业未来的预测，包括 XML 数据库将超越关系型数据库、多线程编程将失宠、Lisp 将进入十大流行语言等。多年后 Hacker News 读者重新审视这些预测的命中与落空，并讨论预测练习本身的价值。
为什么经久不衰：它既是一份有趣的行业预言对照表，也示范了一种自我审视的思考练习——预测本身不重要，重要的是逼自己看清内心的判断。
HN 评论精选
逐条核对十条预测的命中情况，多数落空或只对了一半。
逐条点评：XML 数据库没赢，但 NoSQL（尤其 JSON 系）算是应验了一半；多线程编程并未失宠，多核时代只会更强调它；Lisp 进前十的预测彻底失败；移动市场来得比预期更快；大多数程序员仍将是普通水平这条，我们进步很慢，但版本控制、更多语言、测试文化确实在渗透。
friendly_chap查看英文原文
1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really. We are already in the multicore age, and it will only get moreticore. 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. Not in 2010, not even yet, but we are certainly on the road. No surprise considering how shit Java is. 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. This failed hard. 6. A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. This is such a vague prediction does not even worth mentioning. 7. The mobile/wireless/handheld market is still at least 5 years out. Happened sooner. 8. Someday I will voluntarily pay Google for one of their services. You don't say? They are one of the biggest players out there, even if they are not primarily known for payware but still. 9. Apple's laptop sales will exceed those of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010. No way, thanks God. 10. In five years' time, most programmers will still be average. This makes no sense, but anyway, we are getting better. Slowly though, version control, more languages, testing is infiltrating even some dumber dev companies too. -- I give this guy a mental thumbs up for points 1 and 4, and the cynicism in point 10.
Lisp 的核心思想已被吸收进主流，但不必拘泥于单一范式。
关于 Lisp：2004 年时'函数式'基本就等于 Lisp，如今函数式概念已经普及。Lisp 最大的经验——写'生成代码的代码'更高效——已经传播开来。但更广的教训是：不该把人锁死在单一范式里，编程远不只是语言语法的问题。
moron4hire查看英文原文
On the Lisp thing, looking around the programming world in 2004, you didn't see proliferation of functional concepts like you do today. In those days, "functional" meant Lisp, at least popularly. I think the big lesson of Lisp has been disseminated, though, and that is that it is more productive to write code-that-writes-code. But I also think we learned a broader lesson that it's better to not pigeon-hole people down into a single paradigm. So what if Company A uses only the functional bits of your language and Company B uses only the object oriented bits, thus making their code "incompatible". Their code would be incompatible even if they could 100% agree on programming paradigms, naming conventions, API patterns. Because programming is so much NOT the syntax of the language, as long as it is not specifically restrictive.
引用作者原话：预测练习的价值在于过程而非结果。
原文的重要注记：预测本身并不重要！大多数可能都是错的。这个练习的意义在于练习本身。你应该自己试试——它可能让你看到自己未曾察觉的想法。
swah查看英文原文
"Important Note: the predictions themselves don't matter! Most of them are probably wrong. The point of the exercise is the exercise itself, not in what results. You should try this experiment yourself — it may show you things you're thinking that you weren't really aware of. And other people might find it interesting reading, even if there are factual errors or whatever"
按预测背后的实质意图打分，Yegge 的命中率比表面看起来高。
Yegge 对自己太苛刻了。就像 1850 年预言'到 1950 年人人都有马'，实际指的是人人拥有私人交通工具——预言对了，只是形态不同。XML 数据库那条，如果核心是'RDBMS 有问题，会有东西取代它'，那就算对了一半；Apple 那条'闪亮的东西会赢'更是百分百应验。
pbiggar查看英文原文
I think he's being overly harsh on himself. As he said in the original rant "the predictions themselves don't matter! Most of them are probably wrong. The point of the exercise is the exercise itself, not in what results" Imagine someone in 1850 making the prediction that "by 1950, everyone will have a horse". Though they say "horse", they really mean "everyone will be able to afford their own personal transport", as a reflection on the changing socioeconmic something something. And they would be right. Sure the horse is mechanical, isn't shaped like a horse, and consumes petrol, but your prediction is correct, even though you didn't know exactly how it would play out. The same is the of Yegge's XML DB prediction. If he was saying that XML is going to be amazing, then he's wrong. If he's saying the RDBMSes have problems, then he's right. And actually he's saying "RDBMSes suck, so something will replace them, and XML is big enough that it will be XML". So that looks like a 50% score to me. With Apple, he's basically saying "apple is shiny, and shiny will win". That prediction has been 100% correct. The fact that iPads disrupted the laptop model means he's more correct than if they had just sold more Macbooks. 100% score here, IMO.
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