互联网与文化newsweek.com
为什么网络不会成为天堂（1995）
Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)
2013 — 2024，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
这是 Clifford Stoll 1995 年发表在 Newsweek 的著名文章《为什么网络不会成为天堂》。他当时断言远程办公、电子图书馆、网络商业等愿景都是胡扯，并抱怨网上信息嘈杂难辨真伪。如今回看，他的许多预测被证伪，但对信息过载与噪音问题的担忧却惊人地应验了。
为什么经久不衰：它既是预测未来的经典反面教材，又精准点中了至今未解的信息噪音与信任难题，每隔几年就被人翻出来对照现实，历久弥新。
HN 评论精选
预测未来极难，但文中对信息噪音的担忧至今成立
这篇文章说明预测未来有多难：他嘲讽的愿景——远程办公、互动图书馆、多媒体课堂、电子市政会议、虚拟社区、网络商业——大部分都成真了。但他的实质观点又很对：当人人都有发声渠道时，很难知道该听谁的。优点会浮现，错误信息也会。最诡异的是，传播错误信息的人大多并非说谎，而是真心相信。Stripe 创始人提到，互联网可能正从“广场”型应用回归“晚宴”型应用——没有编辑时，你认识的人往往是更可靠的信息来源。
sillysaurusx查看英文原文
This shows how hard it is to be right about the future: Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic. Baloney. Most of those came true. You don't know what to ignore and what's worth reading. Logged onto the World Wide Web, I hunt for the date of the Battle of Trafalgar. Hundreds of files show up, and it takes 15 minutes to unravel them—one's a biography written by an eighth grader, the second is a computer game that doesn't work and the third is an image of a London monument. None answers my question, and my search is periodically interrupted by messages like, "Too many connections, try again later." https://imgur.com/0T2fBEv And yet.. the substance of it is so true. When everyone has a voice, it's hard to know what to listen to. Merit tends to rise, but so does misinformation. The weirdest part is, misinformation != lying. Most people spreading misinformation genuinely believe it. Stripe's founder mentioned that the internet is probably going to trend back toward "dinner party" type apps rather than "town square" type apps: lacking editors, people you know tend to be a reliable source of information. It's also possible to express yourself without fearing criticism. I wonder what the next 30 years will be like.
他错判的事很多是时机问题，而信息信任问题他其实说对了
嘲讽 Cliff Stoll 很容易，但他错判的很多东西直到近 20 年后才真正被解决：SSL 一年前才发布，Kindle 要 12 年后才出现，远程办公直到疫情才被广泛接受。90 年代末对互联网的过高期望正是 .com 泡沫破裂的原因。而在网络信息信任这个关键问题上，我们绕了一圈回到原点——更多信息并不等于更明智的民众。我们大多数人也预测不准未来 25 年，他的错误只是把话说得太绝对。
deanCommie查看英文原文
It's easy to dunk on Cliff Stoll for this, but a lot of the stuff that he was wrong about didn't really get PROPERLY solved until almost 20 years later! The World Wide Web as we think of it today (browsers accessing websites over HTTP) was still nascent. SSL was only just announced 1 year earlier. The first Kindle wouldn't show up until 12 years after. And until the COVID pandemic most of the world still would have thought we weren't ready to effectively telecommunicate for work full time. (Arguably a lot of us still think that it's not sustainable long-term) Meanwhile, the late 90's were full of big dreams and exceedingly high expectations about what the Internet could be capable of, and the gap between expectations and reality is what contributed to the .com crash of the early 2000's Meanwhile, meanwhile, on a key subject which is the nature of TRUST of information on the Internet, we've come full circle as the last 4 years have shown that more access to better information does not guarantee a better informed populace if powerful forces with an interest in manipulating others have access to powerful platforms like Facebook where they can target their misinformation to the most radicalizable group. I would bet most people on this forum would not be able to predict accurately the next 25 years of technological progress, and if we tried, most of us would look as ridiculous as Cliff Stoll. His mistake was saying everything with as much certainty as he did.
文章好坏参半，部分论点是打稻草人
这篇文章是敏锐的先见之明和离谱的错误的大杂烩。可能还夹杂了一些稻草人论证——我认为当时并没有多少人认真声称计算机会取代教师，计算机和软件一直被视为辅助工具。
jmull查看英文原文
A pretty great mix of sharply prescient and horribly wrong. Maybe a few straw men mixed in too, because I don't think there were many serious claims that computers would replace teachers. Computers and software were seen as supplementary.
推荐作者更著名的黑客追捕纪实《布谷鸟的蛋》
作者 Cliff Stoll 最著名的作品是《布谷鸟的蛋》（The Cuckoo's Egg）——第一人称讲述追捕一名入侵劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室计算机的黑客的故事，起因只是想查清共享系统上一笔 75 美分的账单错误。强烈推荐这本书，我少年时读过，几年前重读依然精彩。
raudette查看英文原文
Cliff Stoll, the author of this piece, is best known for: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cuckoo%27s_Egg_(book) "a first-person account of the hunt for a computer hacker who broke into a computer at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)." 1989 - it started with trying to find the root cause of a 75 cent billing error on their shared computer system. I highly recommend the book - I read it as a teen, and re-read it a couple years ago, it held up.
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