思考与写作paulgraham.com编辑精选
如何在瞬息万变的世界里成为专家
How to Be an Expert in a Changing World
2014 — 2019，它一次次回到首页
黑点是上首页（≥ 50 分）的那次投稿，空心点是没冲上去的投稿，点越大分数越高。
导读
Paul Graham 的短文《How to Be an Expert in a Changing World》，探讨在快速变化的世界中如何避免固守过时的信念。他建议不要把信念当作不可更改的承诺、不要试图预测未来，而是把注意力放在人而非想法上——判断一个人是否真诚、有活力、思想独立，因为世界变化时，优秀的人会带着你一起转向。
为什么经久不衰：它把'如何更新自己的信念'这一永恒难题讲得简洁透彻，在技术和社会快速变化的今天尤其适用。
HN 评论精选
认为文章标题大于内容，核心建议较为常识且缺乏具体案例
我不太确定这篇标题浮夸的文章到底有什么重大洞见。要点大概是：1) 不要与自己的信念'结婚'；2) 不要预测未来；3) 押注于人而非想法；4) 和聪明人交朋友。如果 PG 能分享一些故事和非平凡的方法论，会是一篇更好的文章。
sytelus查看英文原文
I'm not exactly sure what is the grand insight(s) from this essay that warrants it's rather link-baity lavish title. Does below captures all the tips and techniques pg mentioned? 1. Don't marry to your beliefs. This is always a delicate balancing act because we do have to have some belief to make a decision, we just don't know if it's a right. 2. Don't predict the future. Can be derived from #1 so I suppose redundant. 3. Bet on people instead of ideas. I think this is great advice for VCs but have been covered many times by pg. 4. Make friends/Surround yourself with smart people.: Not extremely practical unless you are a famous VC but even then not trivial. It would have been great essay if pg shared some stories and shared non-trivial insights that makes us better at doing above. BTW, I did got tripped at this line: Another trick I've found to protect myself against obsolete beliefs is to focus initially on people rather than ideas. Ummm... what was the first trick?
从认知角度分析信念的作用与矛盾信念的处理
信念是一种优化，避免每次决策都回到第一性原理，这加快了速度但显然有危险。有时两个信念互相矛盾，通常意味着需要重新评估，但有时意味着它们各自在特定语境下为真。人类在矛盾信念面前推理的能力出奇地好——至少在我们意识到自己在这么做之前。
nl查看英文原文
One interesting thing about beliefs in a changing world is how you deal with contradictory beliefs. I see "beliefs" as an optimisation that avoids having to return to first principles for every single decision. That speeds things up, but is obviously dangerous. Sometimes it's possible to have two beliefs that contradict each other. Usually this means they need reevaluating, but sometimes it means there is context in which each is true. Reasoning in the face of contradictory beliefs is one of the most interesting things about "knowledge", and something that humans can do surprisingly well - at least until we realise we are doing it.
用效果逻辑创业理论印证 PG 的观点
恰好参加了 Sarasvathy 教授的效果逻辑创业工作坊。她研究发现专家型创业者不相信未来可预测，而是通过与熟人结成伙伴关系在高不确定性中'创造'未来，以可接受的损失小步投入，靠快速迭代和销售来发现市场，并根据意外发现随时调整。与 PG 这篇文章有很多呼应。
blrgeek查看英文原文
Coincidentally went to an effectual entrepreneurship workshop by Prof. Sarasvathy y'day. Her learnings from talking to 'expert entrepreneurs' are that 1. they do not believe the future can be predicted, esp in the early stages of a new venture 2. they prefer to create the future in areas with high uncertainty by forging partnerships with people they know already, and who are also investing in the same areas 3. they go to the customer at a very low 'acceptable loss' as they can, building as little of the product as they can, investing as little as they can, and getting the first initial set of customers as partners. 4. they jump in to a fast iteration of execution/sales that helps them discover/create the market, relying on sales as market research. 5. they find pleasant surprises along the way that shape their execution/market/venture and they change to fit the new reality - and they shape that reality along the way Finding great parallels with PGs essays here.. See http://effectuation.org/learn Read also http://www.inc.com/magazine/20110201/how-great-entrepreneurs-think.html and the original paper at http://www.effectuation.org/sites/default/files/documents/what-makes-entrepreneurs-entrepreneurial-sarasvathy.pdf
指出质疑所有假设不现实，关键是给假设分级排序
问题在于，作为人类我们必须假设对世界的绝大多数认知是可靠的，否则无法生存。所以需要一个元层面的思考：给每个假设分配置信度。不断重新评估所有假设极其耗费心力，因此关键是分清哪些假设值得在当下质疑。大多数人放弃了这一步，而有些人正是靠这一点牟利。
joncrane查看英文原文
The problem is, in order to operate as human beings, we have to assume the vast majority of our assumptions about the world are solid. For example, gravity will continue to push objects down in a fairly predictable way, the air we breathe will have a certain amount of oxygen, etc. It's extremely difficult to operate, survive even, without making a vast number of assumptions. So there's another, meta-level of thought that's required where we have to assign a confidence to each assumption. For example, I assume my car is going to start each morning, my laptop is going to power up each day, etc. But I also realize there's a nonzero probability that my car will break down or my laptop won't power on. It's incredibly mentally taxing to constantly re-evaluate one's assumptions, so it's incredibly important to triage which assumptions I should question at any given juncture. Most people give up and rely on their assumptions, which leads to a lot of social problems. Old age also severely impacts a person's ability to question assumptions. I don't want to get political here, but some people and organizations profit mightily from this phenomenon, much to the detriment of society as whole.
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