科学与数学newyorker.com
真正的大地震
The Really Big One
2015 — 2024，它一次次回到首页
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导读
这篇《纽约客》长文讲太平洋西北地区（俄勒冈、华盛顿州及周边）的卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带迟早会发生巨震和海啸，并引用 FEMA 官员“I-5 以西都会完蛋”的说法，描绘其灾难性后果。文章也呈现了科学评估、预警不足和公众风险意识淡薄。
为什么经久不衰：它把一条长期被忽视的断层带到公众面前，多年后仍是对西北太平洋灾难风险最有力、最常被引用的提醒。
HN 评论精选
社会对可预见的长期灾难普遍麻木，直到灾难发生才后悔。
2002年10月我在新奥尔良，有个人登上当地主要报纸头版，预测20年内一场5级飓风很可能绕过佛罗里达正面袭击这座城市。他说堤坝不够高、不够坚固，市中心会被20英尺深的水淹没。我记得当时饶有兴致地读完，然后耸耸肩继续过日子。三年后我想起那一刻，意识到作为一个社会，我们并不太在乎自己的长期安全。
rfugger查看英文原文
I was in New Orleans in October 2002, and this guy was on the front page of the main newspaper predicting that within 20 years a category 5 hurricane was likely to whip around Florida and strike the city head on. He said the levies weren't high or strong enough, and that downtown New Orleans would be under 20 feet of water: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/predicting-katrina.html I remember reading it with interest and then shrugging and moving on with my day. Three years later I remembered that moment and realized that as a society we just don't care that much about our long-term safety.
地震预警系统成本极低，却因政治分摊和联邦拨款迟迟不到位。
与此同时，西海岸建立一套适当早期预警系统的门槛每年只有1560万美元，而加州迄今只从国会拿到了500万。说实话，我不太明白为什么还要去求国会，而不是让加州、华盛顿州和俄勒冈州按人口或州GDP分摊；这点钱在预算上似乎比做研究和联邦游说的成本还低。
anigbrowl查看英文原文
Meanwhile the barrier to a proper early warning system for the west coast is a whopping $15.6 million a year, of which California has managed to get a whole $5 million from Congress so far - http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-quake-early-warning-20141215-story.html Honestly, I'm a little unclear as to why we are even going to Congress for this, instead of the governments of CA, WA and OR agreeing to divide up the sum based on population or state GDP or some other obvious metric. The sums involved are so small in budgetary terms as to seem less than the cost of conducting studies and federal lobbying activities.
有科学家认为文章对“I-5 以西”的灾难描述夸大，GPS揭示了该区域复杂的地质运动。
中央华盛顿大学的 Nick Zentner 做过一场很好的演讲，讨论这篇文章，其中一些内容似乎被夸大了，特别是“I-5 以西都会完蛋”的说法。他们在太平洋西北布设了GPS传感器，比较有趣的是俄勒冈和华盛顿的陆地呈螺旋状、做圆周运动。还有，形成黄石的热点曾位于俄勒冈海岸外，穿过俄勒冈、爱达荷才到达现在的位置，留下一条他们现在才发现的破火山口轨迹。热点固定在同一个位置，但地壳在其上移动，所以位置随时间改变。
cronix查看英文原文
Nick Zentner of Central Washington University did a really good talk about this article and some of it seems overblown, specifically the "west of I5 will be toast." They've placed GPS sensors throuout the PNW and one of the more interesting things is that Oregon and Washingtons land is working in a spiral, and the land is moving in a circular pattern. Also that the hot spot that creates Yellowstone used to be off the Oregon coast and traveled through Oregon, and Idaho before it reached where it currently is. It's left a trail of calderas that they're only now discovering. The hotspot stays in the same spot, but the earths crust moves over it changing it's position over time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tW4D6OE7Qkc
复发周期和风险认知需要修正，而且北段当前储存的能量可能不足以引发巨震。
在西雅图和波特兰所在的纬度，实际复发周期更接近每500年一次。300年的说法只适用于断层南段，即南俄勒冈和北加州，而且基于浊积岩，存在争议。这仍是西北地区被低估的风险；全球有不少社会生活在俯冲带，但很少有哪个地方的人对自家断层如此缺乏意识。我记得和搬到西雅图的人聊天，他们知道该地区可能发生地震的概率大概只有50%。好的一面是：虽然永远无法确定预测，但北段目前似乎没有足够能量产生一次巨型逆冲地震。
itza1查看英文原文
It’s actually closer to every 500 years at the latitude Seattle and Portland are at. The 300 year figure only applies to the southern Oregon and Northern California portion of the fault, and is based on turbidities and controversial. Still, this is an under-appreciated risk of living in the northwest. There’s plenty of societies living in subduction zones across the planet. But few with as little awareness of their fault. I remember talking to transplants to Seattle, I’d say there’s a 50/50 percent chance they were aware the region could produce earthquakes. On the bright side: while we can never predict this for certain, it doesn’t appear there’s enough energy stored in the northern portion of the fault to produce a mega-thrust earthquake right now.
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